Albertans need to wake up to reality

That’s the message from Lawrence Herman, an international lawyer and a senior fellow at the C. D. Howe Institute.

In an August 15, 2026 article in the Globe and Mail (“An independent Alberta would need to negotiate its trade and treaty relationships”) Herman notes that, under international law, newly formed countries don’t simply inherit pre-existing arrangements. “They have to negotiate their way in.” 

That means all deals are off. Alberta would need to renegotiate all its existing trade and treaty relationships. 

Yes, we have oil. And that gives us some leverage but perhaps not as much leverage as the separatist rhetoric would suggest, especially when it comes to confronting a huge, economically powerful, and currently unpredictable country like the U.S.

As Herman notes, “This brings us to the challenges Alberta would face in securing stable, beneficial access to the American market, something that, whatever other issues may be in play, would be the most critical factor for its future as an independent country. It’s in this respect that the people of Alberta need to wake up to reality.”

The outcomes of current trade negotiations with the U.S. are uncertain at best and whatever trade deal emerges, it will be a deal among the U.S., Canada and perhaps Mexico. Admitting a separate Alberta to that deal would require an agreement from all three countries. Alberta would not automatically be included.

In addition to the U.S., an independent Alberta would also not automatically get the rights and benefits it enjoys under Canada’s existing trade agreements with other countries and regions around the world. That includes current agreements with the European Union, the Asia-Pacific region, and the new Canada-South Korea free trade agreement.

And then there’s tariffs. Herman notes that no foreign country would automatically grant the same tariff concessions to Alberta exporters as the rest of Canada has. That means Alberta would face the prospect of lengthy negotiations with other countries just to get the same market access Alberta’s companies and industries currently have.

Herman concludes with this chilling observation: “No one denies that Alberta has leverage with its huge oil and gas reserves. This gives us some serious cards to play. But once out of Canada and playing those cards internationally will involve a long, convoluted and highly uncertain game. While all this is happening, who would buy Alberta bonds?”