Alberta’s economy benefits by up to $200 billion over the next decade byremaining within a renewed Canada

That’s the key finding from new economic modelling by Alberta economist Lennie Kaplan.

The roughly 4% increase in growth in Alberta’s GDP stems primarily from increases in Alberta’s oil production to around 7.5 million barrels per day by 2035 – an increase that’s possible if Alberta chooses to remain in Canada. Kaplan points to key factors indicating that level of increase is possible: private sector investments in projects such as the West Coast Oil Pipeline, other announced pipeline expansions and optimizations, brownfield and greenfield oil sands projects, and the Pathways Carbon Capture and Storage project.

All those projects are more likely to proceed under what Kaplan calls a new economic deal with Canada. Conversely, he warns those projects would be in jeopardy due to the uncertainty and need for difficult negotiations with the US and others if Alberta chooses to separate.

Other key findings include:

• Up to a $40 billion or 7% boost to Alberta’s GDP in 2035

• Up to 120,000 or a 4% increase in Alberta jobs in 2035

• Up to $250 billion or a 20% boost to cumulative investment over the next decade

• Up to $8 billion or a 10% boost in provincial government revenues in 2035

• Up to $45 billion or a 5% boost in cumulative provincial government revenues over the next decade

Aside from benefits to Alberta, Kaplan concludes that “pursuing a new economic deal between Alberta and Canada, rather than independence, will benefit all Canadians, and give our country greater leverage in difficult negotiations with the United States over a renewed Canada US Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA).”