Brexit: A Cautionary Tale for Alberta

Brexit Basics

In June 2016, UK voters participated in an historic referendum, with 52 percent choosing to leave the European Union. This vote sent shockwaves through the world and is viewed as one of the most momentous economic and political events of the 21st century.

Supporters of the “Vote Leave” campaign made numerous promises and predictions about the enormous benefits that would result from the UK leaving the EU. Along with claims that Brexit would allow the UK to control its own immigration and regain control over its laws, borders, money and trade policy, there were promises of huge financial benefits.

One of the most famous claims was that the UK sent 350 million pounds a week to the EU, and that this money itself could fund the National Health Service. This turned out to be false: The 350 million pounds was the UK’s gross contribution to the EU, not the net cost, and there was no “Brexit dividend” to healthcare.

It was said that Brexit would bring the UK economic prosperity, allowing it to thrive outside the EU with less regulation and greater flexibility.

In fact, all economic indicators and studies show the UK is poorer after Brexit; the economy is weaker and growth has slowed.

How Does Brexit Relate to Alberta Separatism?

Although there are obviously many differences, there are also many similarities, in economic terms, between the UK separating from the EU and the idea of Alberta separating from Canada and creating an independent economy.

According to University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, “Brexit was significantly easier than what Alberta leaving Canada would entail.”

“Any of the costs around what the United Kingdom has experienced should be viewed as a substantial underestimate of the potential costs and challenges that Alberta would face leaving Confederation.”

Brexit 10 years later – how attitudes about it have changed

There have been significant shifts in opinions about Brexit since 2016.

A June 26, 2026, poll conducted by Ipsos, indicated that 58 percent of likely voters in a hypothetical future referendum would vote to rejoin the EU, while only 37 percent would vote to stay out. Among decided voters, the split was 61 to 39 percent in favour of rejoining. Almost half of the respondents supported having a new referendum on the issue.

Another comprehensive poll conducted by Ipsos in May 2026 highlighted a significant increase in British dissatisfaction with Brexit a decade after the 2016 vote. 48 percent of Britons surveyed said that Brexit was going worse than they expected. This is a sharp increase from 28 percent in March 2021. Only 9 percent of Britons think Brexit is going better than expected.

Brexit 10 years later – the economics of leaving

In an Associated Press article dated June 22, 2026 reporter Danica Kirka summarized some of the current research in her article entitled: “Britain’s economic woes fuel discontent with Brexit a decade after historic vote to leave EU:”

“By most measures, the British economy today is weaker than it would have been without Brexit, according to a recent report published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The report, compiled by researchers in Britain, Germany and the U.S., compares the performance of the U.K. economy to 33 other countries, including its European neighbors, the U.S., Canada and Japan.

“According to this study, Brexit has reduced Britain’s gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic output, by 6% to 8%, investment by 12% to 13% and productivity by 3% to 4%, the researchers concluded.”

A November 2025 study by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research came to the same conclusions, stating that “(T)hese large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainly, reduced demand, diverted management time and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process.”

According to the UK Office for Budget Responsibility’s March 2025 analysis, both exports and imports will be approximately 15 per cent lower in the long run, than if the UK had remained in the EU.

The process of negotiating the terms of Brexit itself from 2016 to 2020, as well as the new rules governing trade with the EU, made it more expensive and time-consuming to do business with European partners.

Creon Butler, who leads the global economy and finance program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, said “Whatever was promised, whatever one hoped for, (you have) to accept that it has been a major loss of wealth and prosperity for us though the choice we made to leave.”

Learning from the Brexit experience

The Calgary Chamber of Commerce commissioned a report released on June 23, 2026, which highlighted a deeply concerning outlook for Alberta’s economy should separation occur.

University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe was tasked by the Chamber to conduct an analysis tied to separation. The Chamber has, for months leading up to this study, expressed a concern that Alberta leaving Canada would cause “profound economic uncertainty and damage” to the province.

Tombe has used the measured impact of Brexit on the UK economy to estimate that an 8% increase in trade costs could see Alberta lose 175,000 job and see its economy shrink, potentially by as much as $62 billion a year.

The economic analysis estimates that Alberta could forego between $10 billion and $15 billion in investment in 2026 alone, if investment levels decline similarly to those experienced following Brexit.

Businesses already being hurt in Alberta

The Calgary Chamber of Commerce also hired Probe Research to conduct a survey of its members. That survey, released June 23, 2026, showed nearly half of Chamber member businesses said they were prepared to leave Alberta and relocate their businesses to another province if Albertans vote to begin the formal process towards separation. Only 39 percent said they were unlikely to move.

Eighty percent of the survey respondents said the current separation discussion is having a negative impact on the Alberta economy, and 74 percent saw no tangible benefits of separating from Canada.

There is consensus amongst business leaders that uncertainty itself is having a negative impact on the bottom line of most businesses.

According to the Alberta Chamber of Commerce, in a report June 25, 2026, more than 4 in 10 businesses report that political uncertainty is directly impacting their operations. That figure is double the share reported a year earlier.

The Chamber also reported that 60 percent of businesses are positive about Canada’s future, a notable shift over the previous year.

Our View

It would be folly to ignore the economic reality of what Brexit has meant for the UK and the regrets that many UK voters now express about choosing the “leave” option.

Research by respected business organizations and economists in Alberta point to the possibility of very similar negative outcomes here, with businesses prepared to leave even if the province just begins the process of to hold a binding referendum on separation.

We are voting for the option to stay in Canada.