What message are you sending?

On October 19, Albertans will be asked to vote on ten referendum questions, all of them important to Alberta’s future but none more important than whether to start the process for separating from Canada.

In conversations with Albertans, we hear some people say, “I don’t want to separate from Canada but I want to send a message to the federal government.” They talk about longstanding grievances with Ottawa and the illusive Laurentian elite who are thought to hold power in eastern Canada, ignore Alberta’s needs and fail to respect the contributions Alberta – and especially Alberta’s resources – provide to the rest of Canada. These grievances date back decades but have escalated during the Trudeau era.

Ask these same people about the specifics of the grievances and they provide varying answers or no answers at all – they’re just angry. Some talk about the unfairness of equalization. Others complain about unfair taxes stifling growth of resource development or environmental laws preventing shipping on the west coast, the “no more pipelines” law. Often, they ignore the fact that the federal government, did, in fact, pay for a pipeline to the west coast. For still others, it’s just the mention of the word “Trudeau” that spurs their anger.

In the face of the pending referendum on whether Alberta pursues the next steps towards separation, there are other groups of Albertans saying things have changed. That it’s time for Alberta to “lead not leave”. With a new Prime Minister – a Prime Minister from Alberta for the first time since Stephen Harper – there are clear signs that the attitude to Alberta, and especially developing Alberta’s resources, has changed significantly. Alberta now is pursuing not only one pipeline to the west coast but potentially another going east to Sarnia, Ontario. Instead of being an obstacle, the federal government is a willing partner and signs point to potentially getting the greenlight on a new pipeline to the west coast before Alberta votes on October 19.

Those developments, and a general sense of growing optimism about Canada and Canada’s future not only at home but around the world, beg the question: When people vote on October 19, what message are they sending? What specifically would they like to see change to convince them that Ottawa is listening?

The vote on October 19 is more than simply sending a message. It’s an unprecedented signal to the rest of Canada that we’re either proud Canadians, willing to step up and lead the country in making Canada and our province a better place. Or we’re prepared to launch the next step in a long process that would let Albertans vote on separating from Canada.

Make no mistake, this vote has direct and serious consequences. If the majority of Albertans choose Option B, it directs Alberta’s government to commence the process to hold a binding referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada. Choosing Option B doesn’t just send a message. It’s not some idle bluff. We don’t get to walk away after, pat ourselves on our backs and say, now they’ll listen to us.

As Jared Wesley and Patricia Paradis outline in their recent article, The many hazards of Alberta’s Option B:

“Option B is not a harmless way to ‘keep the door open’ to independence, or to ‘send Ottawa a message’. Rather, it is a vote to put the province into constitutional limbo: years of Crown-Indigenous conflict, consultations, court cases, campaigns, and internal party warfare over a departure whose terms cannot be known in advance. Worse yet, Alberta would spend years trying to renegotiate the benefits it already enjoys – access to a national market, shared public programs, national defense, mobility rights, and international reputation – with no guarantee of retaining them and every possibility of paying more for less.”

Voting for Option B sends a signal to the rest of Canada and the world that Alberta is serious about separation and will move forward, even though the process to hold a vote on a binding referendum will do untold damage to our province. It will involve not months but years of distracting debates. It will cripple the province’s ability to move forward on important issues that will actually make a difference for Albertans’ day to day lives and marginalize Alberta at a time when we have genuine opportunities to lead, to strengthen our province and our country.

For supporters of new pipelines, does anyone honestly believe the federal government would move ahead with a major commitment to a pipeline in the face of a potential vote to leave Canada? Are any private sector proponents likely to come forward in the face of that uncertainty? Does anyone think the threat of separation hanging over our heads for years will make things better? And what damage will the ongoing uncertainty cause for Alberta’s economy? We already have signals from Alberta’s business community that the referendum on October 19 is putting a damper on investment and many businesses are openly saying they will leave the province if we pursue separation.

We’ve seen the damage referendums in Quebec have caused and the lessons from Brexit are obvious today. While Albertans engage in a costly and non-productive debate over separation, business opportunities will dry up, investment will flee, entrepreneurs and professionals will leave. We’ve seen those warnings from Quebec and Britain and in spite of the fanciful and unrealistic claims from the true separatists, there’s no reason to believe it would be different in Alberta.

While many are focussed on sending a message to Ottawa, how people vote on October 19 also sends a message to the provincial government. It says to the province, we want you to set aside the issues that matter most to us – affordability, access to health care, improving education for our kids – and continue debating separation, pitting Albertans against each other and putting other important issues on hold while this becomes the single issue consuming the provincial government’s attention. It may appease some members of the UCP government and its supporters, but is this really what the majority of Albertans want their government to be focused on over the next few years? Especially at a time when the rest of Canada is talking about working together to grow our economy. A time when there’s real optimism that Canada, finally, is stepping up and reducing our reliance on a single trading partner. A time when Alberta has real opportunities to lead and build an economy with jobs and opportunities for future generations of young Albertans.

Finally, voting for Option B also sends a message to President Trump, who continues his threats of Canada becoming the 51st state. While our Prime Minister and Premiers across the country are actively countering the 51st state threats, a vote by for Option B by Albertans opens the door. It sends a message not only to Ottawa but to the U.S. and the message to them is “maybe.” Maybe there’s a route to Alberta becoming the 51st state after all, and with our rich natural resources and clear route to the Arctic, maybe that’s all the U.S would really want.

Make no mistake, October 19 is a critically important day for Alberta. How Albertans vote on separation will send a message to the rest of Canada, to businesses and potential investors in Alberta, to our federal government, to our own provincial government, and to countries watching around the world. Albertans should think seriously about the message they are sending and the repercussions it will have for Alberta’s future.

Our View

We are voting for option A, the clear option to remain in Canada.